Fracking leaks

Cameron speaking in 2010.

David Cameron speaks (credit: Wikipedia)

The start of 2013 saw a massive puff from the British government for development of shale gas, Premier David Cameron crying ‘Britain must be at the heart of the shale gas revolution’. Fearful of the rapidly growing shift from Britain’s natural-gas self reliance to dependence on the Gulf, Russia and Norway the Conservative-Liberal  Democrat coalition gave the green light for ‘frack drilling’ to restart. This followed a pause following seismicity in the Blackpool area that attended Cuadrilla’s exploratory drilling into the gas-rich Carboniferous Bowland Shale thereabouts. There is also a nice sweetener for the new industry in the form of tax breaks.

English: Boris Johnson holding a model red dou...

Boris Johnson holds a model London red bus (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

London Mayor Boris Johnson, a possible contender for Tory leadership, seems pleased. And perhaps he should be, as the Lib-Con coalition will be tested because the junior partners depend electorally, to some extent, on ‘green’ credentials. The Lib-Dem Energy Minister, Ed Davey, seemingly favours an automatic halt to drilling should there be seismicity greater than 0.5 on the Richter scale; an energy level less than experienced every day in London from its Underground trains. Political commentators have forecast that green issues may exacerbate tensions within the coalition in the second half of its scheduled 5-year term, especially as the electorate seems set to reduce the Liberal Democrat partners to irrelevance in future elections.

Natural gas’s biggest ‘green’ plus is that being a hydrocarbon its burning releases considerably less CO2 than does its coal energy equivalent, the hydrogen content becoming water vapour. Yet the dominant gas is methane, which has a far larger greenhouse effect than the CO2 released by its burning. To avoid that presenting increased atmospheric warming, extracting natural gas needs to avoid leakage. Unfortunately for those bawling lustily about the economic potential of fracking source rocks such as the Bowland Shale, recent aerial surveys over US gas fields will come as a major shock. At the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in early December 2012 methane emissions from two large gas fields in the western US were released (Tollefson, J. 2013. Methane leaks erode green credentials of natural gas. Nature, v. 493, p. 12). They amount to 9% of total production, which would more than offset the climatic ‘benefit’ of using natural gas as a coal alternative.

A shift from coal to natural gas-fuelled power generation would slow down climatic warming, if leakage is kept below the modest level of 3.2% of production. So if the latest measurements are an unavoidable norm for gas fields then natural gas burning in fact increases global warming. Even more telling is that, until the shale ‘fracking revolution’, gas was produced by drilling into permeable reservoir rocks capped by a seal rock – usually a shale. The gas would not have leaked except from the well itself. Fracking, by design, increases the permeability of what would otherwise be a seal rock – hydrocarbon-rich shale – over a large area.

English: Schematic cross-section of the subsur...

Schematic cross-section illustrating types of natural gas deposits (credit: Wikipedia)

Aerial analyses to check emissions over oil and gas fields, let alone over shale-gas operations, are not widespread. However, the technology is not new. Where emissions are strictly enforced in populated areas, as over oil terminals and refineries, overflights to sample the air have been routine for several decades. Little mention is made of such precautionary measures in the promotion of fracking.

Another point is that as well as often being far from habitations, US shale-gas operations are generally into simple stratigraphy and structure. The Lower Carboniferous Bowland Shale now being touted as fuel for Britain’s escape from a descent into economic depression, with its estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of as potential, is intensely faulted and broadly folded, having experienced the Variscan orogeny at the end of the Palaeozoic Era. The complexity and pervasiveness of this brittle deformation is amply shown by geological maps of former coalfields that incorporate subsurface information from mine workings. The Bowland Shale lies below the Upper Carboniferous Coal Measures, many of the likely targets for fracking have never been subject to intensive underground mining simply because the Coal Measures were eroded away tens of million years ago. Consequently the degree to which many fracking targets may be riven by surface-breaking faults and fracture zones is not and possibly never will be known in the detail needed to assess widespread methane leakage.

Sometime in early 2013, the British Geological Survey is set to release estimates of the Bowland Shale gas reserves, in which its detailed mapping archives will have played the major role. That report will bear detailed scrutiny as regards the degree to which it also assesses potential leakage.

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4 responses to “Fracking leaks

  1. Pingback: Review of fracking issues |

  2. Uncertainties regarding the commercial viability of the UK’s shale resources. Report from ‘First Break‘ the magazine of the EAGE – European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers:
    http://fb.eage.org/content.php?id=66635

  3. What you fail to mention is that not only is the Bowland Shale much deeper than the US reservoirs, for the Bowland Shale in the Blackpool area the seal is actually a thick salt deposit so potential gas transmission pathways to the surface are not as simple as you suggest.

    • I am pretty sure that the Bowland Shale under consideration, ie with the supposed 200 trillion cubic feet of reserves, is not just that beneath the Fylde. Sure, if there is an evaporite seal, presumably in the Upper Triassic, above the target for the Blackpool drilling that would reduce pervasive leakage. However, the Bowland Shales occur beneath a much wider area where post-Carboniferous sediments are not present. We shall see what BGS has to say, but if shale-gas operations leak in the US, then they will leak in Britain as well. But what we are dealing with is not merely a geological and environmental issue but one involving a climate of political and economic desperation in which the technical credentials of the decision makers perhaps do not extend to subsurface geology and engineering.

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